{"id":395085,"date":"2025-08-29T14:52:41","date_gmt":"2025-08-29T14:52:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/igamingbusiness.com\/br\/?p=395085"},"modified":"2025-09-09T14:53:09","modified_gmt":"2025-09-09T14:53:09","slug":"o-mercado-ilegal-no-brasil-e-inflado-diz-analista","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igamingbusiness.com\/br\/jogos-offshore\/o-mercado-ilegal-no-brasil-e-inflado-diz-analista\/","title":{"rendered":"Analista adverte que o \u201cinflado\u201d mercado ilegal do Brasil est\u00e1 gerando novas restri\u00e7\u00f5es"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Com estimativas variadas sobre o tamanho do mercado ilegal no Brasil, o diretor-geral da H2 Gambling Capital, Ed Birkin, acredita que avalia\u00e7\u00f5es imprecisas podem produzir o efeito oposto e incentivar restri\u00e7\u00f5es mais severas aos operadores licenciados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Desde que o mercado de bets virtuais do Brasil foi regulamentado<\/a> em 1\u00ba de janeiro, muitos atores do setor t\u00eam compartilhado preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es sobre a preval\u00eancia do mercado ilegal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ainda esta semana, o head de integridade da Genius Sports para a Am\u00e9rica Latina, Tiago Barbosa, disse a uma comiss\u00e3o governamental que 70% a 80% das apostas feitas no Brasil s\u00e3o ilegais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birkin acredita que o tamanho do mercado ilegal no Brasil \u00e9 \u201cmuito inflado\u201d, com a H2 estimando que ele provavelmente representa cerca de 30% do mercado total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ele alerta que exagerar o tamanho do mercado ilegal de jogos de azar no Brasil pode levar os legisladores a considerar o setor excessivamente prejudicial, o que pode resultar em regulamenta\u00e7\u00f5es mais r\u00edgidas para a ind\u00fastria legal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Segundo o pr\u00f3prio, os operadores querem desviar a aten\u00e7\u00e3o das suas pr\u00f3prias defici\u00eancias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNa verdade, acho que a narrativa est\u00e1 sendo conduzida por v\u00e1rios operadores com desempenho abaixo do esperado, e isso facilita ainda mais dizer que o mercado ilegal \u00e9 maior, em vez de simplesmente admitir que n\u00e3o est\u00e3o competindo t\u00e3o bem no mercado legal\u201d, afirma Birkin \u00e0 iGB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ele explica que as primeiras preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es com a participa\u00e7\u00e3o ilegal no mercado, que se situava entre 60% e 70%, surgiram em janeiro, quando as empresas licenciadas ainda enfrentavam dificuldades para atrair novos jogadores devido \u00e0s novas restri\u00e7\u00f5es relacionadas \u00e0 pol\u00edtica KYC (Conhe\u00e7a Seu Cliente, na sigla em ingl\u00eas).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De acordo com as estimativas da H2, o faturamento de janeiro do mercado brasileiro foi de R$ 2,2 bilh\u00f5es. Em abril, o mercado quase duplicou, faturando R$ 4 bilh\u00f5es em um m\u00eas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No entanto, como parte do setor ainda perpetua a narrativa de que os operadores ilegais representam 60% a 70% do mercado, Birkin afirma que isso n\u00e3o faz sentido.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“As pessoas ainda est\u00e3o falando de 60% a 70% serem ilegais”, diz Birkin. “Voc\u00ea duplica o tamanho do mercado legal, ent\u00e3o o mercado ilegal tamb\u00e9m duplicou desde janeiro?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simplesmente n\u00e3o \u00e9 verdade nem poss\u00edvel. E isso colocaria o tamanho total do mercado em US$ 20 bilh\u00f5es, o que, novamente, n\u00e3o \u00e9 verdade.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A amea\u00e7a de novas restri\u00e7\u00f5es no Brasil<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Menos de oito meses se passaram desde o in\u00edcio da regulamenta\u00e7\u00e3o, mas o setor j\u00e1 enfrenta press\u00f5es regulat\u00f3rias adicionais.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Um aumento preliminar do imposto sobre o GGR (receita bruta do jogo) dos operadores, de 12% para 18%<\/a>, aguarda uma vota\u00e7\u00e3o no Congresso para decidir se ser\u00e1 permanente. Enquanto isso, novas restri\u00e7\u00f5es \u00e0 publicidade, como marcos regulat\u00f3rios<\/a>, tamb\u00e9m parecem estar a caminho.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embora alguns membros do setor tenham contestado essas novas medidas, argumentando que elas s\u00f3 servir\u00e3o para impulsionar o mercado ilegal<\/a>, Birkin acredita que esse argumento n\u00e3o est\u00e1 sendo levado em considera\u00e7\u00e3o pelo governo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNo Brasil, o governo n\u00e3o se preocupa muito com o mercado legal ou ilegal, ou com a divis\u00e3o entre ambos, eles apenas veem o jogo como um grande problema social\u201d, explica Birkin. Eles se limitam a dizer: \u201cAs pessoas est\u00e3o gastando demais, precisamos tomar medidas dr\u00e1sticas contra isso\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Me disseram que, quando os dados foram divulgados, o mercado legal havia atingido R$ 3 bilh\u00f5es em um m\u00eas, e muitas pessoas comentavam nas not\u00edcias: \u201cOlha, esse n\u00famero \u00e9 muito alto, est\u00e1 fora de controle\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Em abril, esse valor chega a R$ 4 bilh\u00f5es, e ent\u00e3o voc\u00ea diz que 60% do mercado \u00e9 ilegal. Adivinha s\u00f3. Voc\u00ea est\u00e1 dizendo que o tamanho do mercado era de R$ 10 bilh\u00f5es em abril.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agora voc\u00ea acha que a narrativa certa para se proteger e evitar que eles restrinjam sua publicidade e o que as pessoas podem jogar \u00e9 alegar que s\u00e3o R$ 10 bilh\u00f5es? Isso \u00e9 simplesmente il\u00f3gico, especialmente quando n\u00e3o h\u00e1 nenhuma evid\u00eancia.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hist\u00f3ria com li\u00e7\u00e3o de moral nos Pa\u00edses Baixos <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Birkin argumenta que o exagero do mercado ilegal de jogos de azar no Brasil pode produzir o efeito oposto, levando os legisladores a pensar que o setor como um todo \u00e9 muito maior do que realmente \u00e9 e, portanto, mais prejudicial \u00e0 popula\u00e7\u00e3o brasileira.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Isso poderia acabar levando a mais restri\u00e7\u00f5es, em vez de menos, sendo impostas ao setor regulamentado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birkin observou uma situa\u00e7\u00e3o semelhante nos Pa\u00edses Baixos, onde a intensa publicidade ap\u00f3s o lan\u00e7amento do mercado online legalizado em outubro de 2021<\/a> fez com que o mercado crescesse rapidamente, mas tamb\u00e9m aumentou as preocupa\u00e7\u00f5es com os danos causados pelo jogo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Em resposta a esses receios crescentes, os Pa\u00edses Baixos assumiram uma posi\u00e7\u00e3o de linha dura, restringindo a publicidade e introduzindo impostos mais altos e limites de dep\u00f3sito para os jogadores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A H2 estima que os operadores ilegais representam cerca de 50% do mercado holand\u00eas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“A mesma coisa aconteceu nos Pa\u00edses Baixos”, acrescenta Birkin. \u201cH\u00e1 um novo mercado, todo mundo anunciou demais, o mercado cresceu, as pessoas acharam que era propaganda demais e fecharam tudo, impondo limites de gastos. E sim, o mercado est\u00e1 arruinado.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Acho que a mesma coisa vai acontecer no Brasil, e n\u00e3o \u00e9 como se esta hist\u00f3ria n\u00e3o tivesse acontecido muitas vezes em outros lugares.”  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Birkin: O setor licenciado no Brasil deve assumir a responsabilidade<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Birkin conclui afirmando que, se as novas medidas regulat\u00f3rias forem implementadas no Brasil, os operadores licenciados ser\u00e3o parcialmente culpados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A natureza desequilibrada do mercado brasileiro significa que, se voc\u00ea retirar as 19 marcas principais da equa\u00e7\u00e3o, a H2 estima que os sites restantes det\u00eam uma participa\u00e7\u00e3o m\u00e9dia de mercado de aproximadamente 0,1% cada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcho que as pessoas precisam parar de culpar o mercado ilegal quando, na verdade, o problema \u00e9 que elas pr\u00f3prias n\u00e3o est\u00e3o tendo um bom desempenho no mercado legal\u201d, afirma Birkin. “Elas n\u00e3o est\u00e3o vendo o faturamento que queriam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Como uma ind\u00fastria, se voc\u00ea ficar por tr\u00e1s desta falsidade da conversa do mercado ilegal sendo maior do que o legal, isso s\u00f3 vai levar a mais restri\u00e7\u00f5es no mercado legal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“E na verdade, acho que a ind\u00fastria n\u00e3o vai gostar, mas eles ter\u00e3o que assumir alguma responsabilidade por isso.”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Exagerar a import\u00e2ncia do mercado ilegal s\u00f3 pressionar\u00e1 o governo a implementar novas restri\u00e7\u00f5es, argumenta Ed Birkin, da H2 Gambling Capital.","protected":false},"author":293,"featured_media":395092,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"pmpro_default_level":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[11393,10172,11365,11362,43,46,11368],"tags":[11221,11533,11653,1925,9888],"company_relation":[],"content_series":[],"content_type":[102],"region":[215,210],"theme":[],"class_list":["post-395085","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-financas","category-jogos-offshore","category-juridico","category-juridico-conformidade","category-marketing-afiliados","category-regulacao-de-marketing","category-regulamentacao","tag-brasil","tag-ed-birkin","tag-h2","tag-h2-gambling-capital","tag-h2gc","content_type-noticias","region-brasil","region-latam","pmpro-has-access"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nO mercado ilegal no Brasil \u00e9 \u201cinflado\u201d, diz analista<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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