The Japanese Racing Association's Q2 results coming in ahead of pre-Covid expectations saw a stabilisation in H2 Gambling Capital’s 2020 forecast this week.
iGB’s principal data partner is now estimating global gambling gross win to come in at $362.6bn, 23.4% below pre-pandemic forecasts, the same percentage decline as last week (see interactive charts 1, 2 and 8 below).
The JRA accounts for 18% of the global horse race betting industry, and H2 said this outperformance was the first for any entity since the outbreak started negatively impacting land-based operations.
H2 also announced that its 2021 forecast was now tracking below actual 2019 numbers at around $451bn. “For some time we have held the view it would be 2022 before we would return/surpass 2019 levels, pointing out that forecasts do not include likely additional downgrades to GDP growth as a result of the secondary economic impacts of Covid-19 or the impact of a second wave”, it said in its commentary today.
However, online, which H2 said “has saved so much of the sector during the Covid 19 outbreak” is on track for 17.2% of global gambling gross win in 2020, up by four percentage points since the start of the outbreak, and is expected to remain over 15% in 2021 (Chart 6).