Covid-19: annual revenue expected to miss 2013 total

Global gambling revenue is now estimated by H2 Gambling Capital to finish the year below the total for 2013 as the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) crisis continues to disrupt the sector

iGB’s principal data partner is projecting 2020 global gambling gross win for the sector of $399.6bn, 15.6% below the forecast it provided before the industry began to be impacted by the outbreak from early February (see Charts 1 and 2 below).

The annual downgrade of 15.6% projected by H2 in Week 10 of its tracking of the cumulative impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak on the global gambling industry compares to 13.6% a week ago.

From a regional standpoint, Europe saw the greatest downgrade in the last seven days, by more than three percentage points to 13.6%. Asia/Oceania, first impacted by the pandemic, is currently forecast to finish 18.7% below the pre-crisis estimate, and North America by 12.6% (Charts 3-5 below).

The growth of online vis a vis its land-based counterpart now appears to have plateaued, with digital’s projected share of 16.5% of total global gambling revenues for 2020 flat on the figure estimated a week earlier (see Chart 6).

H2 also warned of a further negative impact midway through the month of more US states reporting their March figures, after those states that reported early in April posted revenue numbers 60-65% below what H2 had expected pre-crisis.

This week will also see the IMF publish revised GDP forecasts including the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak, which H2 said it expected to have a further material impact on its 2020 expectations for global industry gross win.