Covid-19: exchange rate update offsets $2bn downgrade

An end-of-quarter exchange rate adjustment offset a further downgrade in H2 Gambling Capital’s 2020 forecast for the pandemic-hit global gambling sector this week.

iGB’s principal data partner wiped US$2bn of its annual forecasts due mainly to the impact on Macau revenues of pushing back expectations for the reopening of the borders.

“Even though technically the casino market is open in Macau, until the borders are reopened domestic demand within the SAR is only going to drive c3% of the level of activities that would be expected in normal times”, said the data speciailst in its commentary.

However, the regular exchange rate update added $5bn or 1.39% to the 2020 estimates, putting annual revenues on track to come in 23.4% below pre-pandemic forecasts (see interactive Chart 2 below).

Online’s share of projected 2020 global gambling gross win continued to rise this week, ticking up to 17.1% or US$61-62bn of the total (Chart 6).

“Although this level is obviously enhanced by so many major land-based facilities being closed for much of the second quarter, we do now see online account for as high as 20% of global gross win within the coming decade”, said H2.