Is this the end of Thailand casino try?
Once again, a bill to bring casino resorts to Thailand has hit a wall.
On 1 July, the Thailand Constitutional Court suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra for alleged ethics violations pending a review that could last for months. The sanction followed a June phone call by Paetongtarn to Cambodian strongman Hun Sen.
In the conversation, the prime minister seemed to side with Cambodia in its border conflict with Thailand. Perhaps worse, she criticised one of her own military commanders.
“That side wants to look cool,” she said. “They will say things that are not beneficial to the nation.” She told the former Cambodian leader if he wants anything, “Just tell me, I’ll take care of it.”
A recording of the call leaked to the public, causing widespread outrage and calls for the premier’s removal. The uproar has jeopardised a cornerstone of her economic development strategy: the controversial Entertainment Complex Bill.
The legislation would introduce five integrated resorts with gaming across the country. Its purpose is to attract foreign investment, increase tourism and create new jobs and industry. But it’s been a hard sell from the start, with fears that casinos would also bring new vice, corruption and gambling addiction.
On Monday, lawmakers scrapped the bill from a parliamentary session where it was to have topped the agenda this Thursday.
Ruling party turned lame duck
Government whip Visuth Chainaroon insists that lawmakers did not pull the legislation “out of fear or anything. We’d just like to communicate with the people first on the issue and clear any lingering doubts.”
But Paetongtarn’s Pheu Thai Party is weaker because of the scandal. In protest, the Bhumjaithai Party withdrew from the ruling coalition, demanded that Paetongtarn step down, and vowed to fight the casino bill. With the slim majority that remains, Pheu Thai would be hard-pressed to advance any major legislation, much less a bill that has sparked so much opposition.
Gaming analyst Brendan Bussmann of B2 Global doubts that Paetongtarn will be restored as prime minister. “I don’t think she survives. If she does, she will be damaged at best and have zero effectivity.” Citing Thailand’s recent reversal on legal pot, Bussmann also urged gaming operators to think twice before considering the volatile market.
In 2018, Thailand legalized medical marijuana, and in 2022 it was the first country in Southeast Asia to OK recreational use. But in a head-spinning development, last month the Ministry of Public Health recriminalised recreational cannabis. The about-face put an end to the so-called “green rush” that brought some 18,000 dispensaries to the country.
“Why would you ever go into that market?” asked Bussmann. “You could be a billion dollars into building a building and they just say, ‘Oops, we changed our mind.’
“Gaming is about stability,” he continued. “If you want good, big, beautiful resorts that add billions of dollars to your economy, you have to think of long-term investment. You can’t keep changing the rules.”