Covid-19: sector facing 21.5% hit to FY revenues

H2 Gambling Capital has further downgraded its FY expectations for the sector to 21.5% below its pre-outbreak forecast.

iGB’s principal data partner’s ‘best case’ expectation of gambling gross win of $371.6bn is  now more than $100bn below the $472.6bn it was projecting before the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak began to impact the sector from early February (see Chart 1 below).

From a regional perspective, Asia/Oceania is now on track to miss its pre-outbreak projection by 22.8%, Europe by 22.7% and North America by 18.5% (Charts 3, 4, 5).

H2 said it currently expected an initial surge in demand as facilities and sporting events started to come back online but also that this would be short lived, as travel restrictions and the experience of reduced capacities, social distancing and limited gaming positions proved off-putting to some customers.

Looking further ahead, it said it anticipated more sector consolidation as the biggest global recession of recent times undermined discretionary spend and the ability of physical facilities “to operate profitably at a reduced capacity”.

H2 said it also expected igaming, where permitted, to “accelerate its rate of progress, further development of more alternative products such as esports/virtuals and additional innovation will help mitigate against any possible future disruption.”

Online has increased its estimated share of 2020 gross win from 13.2% to 16.6% over the course of the pandemic, reflecting the relatively greater impact of movement restrictions on the land-based sector, although interactive is still down year-on-year due to the impact of sporting cancellations and restrictions in some European markets (Chart 6).

H2 this week published its revised projections for the British gamblng market exclusively on iGB.