The report was commissioned by the New York State Gaming Commission in 2019, and originally expected to be delivered in December that year. The delivery date was pushed back to June last year before being delayed indefinitely as a result of the novel coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.
It models potential returns for the state based on a range of different gaming expansion scenarios.
For sports betting, Spectrum examined a number of scenarios, providing modelling for the size market within three to five years post-implementation.
This revealed that should New York maintain its status quo, only permitting in-person betting at its commercial and tribal casinos, it can expect revenue of between $66m and $93m in annual revenue. This in turn would generate returns through taxation of between $4m and $5m.
A limited expansion, in which in-person wagering remains the only legal option, but off-track betting and video lottery terminals are allowed offer betting would have a notable impact. Revenue for the market at maturity would rise to between $212m and $296m, with tax take increasing to between $19m and $27m.
The potential returns grow significantly once digital betting is factored in, rising to between $816m and $1.14bn. Spectrum estimated that this would be the same whether statewide mobile wagering was allowed for only the commercial casinos, or for tribal operators.
However, should tribal operators be restricted to offering mobile on their lands, this would slightly raise the tax take, according to Spectrum’s projections. Under this model the state could expect tax in the range of $74m to $104m, it said.
Should tribes be allowed to compete statewide the tax take would come in slightly lower, between $72m and $99m. Both of these digital scenarios also factor an expansion of the retail betting market.
However, the report does not model the framework for mobile betting supported by New York Governor Andrew Cuomo. Cuomo is promoting a model in which one or more providers would be selected through a request for proposal, similar to the New Hampshire approach, which has seen DraftKings become the state’s exclusive sportsbook provider.
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