Betting revenue in Brazil reaches BRL9.91 billion across first eight months of 2026
On Tuesday, the Brazil Federal Revenue Service released the tax collection results from the first eight months of 2026.
From January to August, BRL2.11 trillion ($411.2 million) entered the government coffers, a growth of almost 12% over the same period of 2025. The taxation of games and bets had an increase of 69.25% in the interval. BRL9.91 billion was collected from the betting sector between January and August.
However, there was a 20.5% decrease in the monthly comparison with July. August represented an inflow of BRL1.163 billion from betting, compared to BRL1.463 billion in July. The best result this year was in January, when revenue reached almost BRL1.5 billion.
In February and March, revenue fell, explained among other things by the seasonality caused by Carnival. From April onwards, revenue began to rise again, with July almost matching the result of January. However, in August there was a 20.5% reduction, perhaps due to the wave of criticism against betting. Another factor is that it was the first full month without the positive effects of the World Cup on betting.
Expectations of BRL16 billion in 2026 could be thwarted
Some projections indicated that the sector could reach a record revenue of BRL16 billion by the end of 2026. With a drop of more than 20% in August and a stabilisation of results, the total is more likely to be around the BRL14 billion mark.
Another concern regarding more satisfactory results is the future of the activity. If the government insists on fulfilling one particular item of its electoral agenda – prohibiting online casinos – the sector may not even reach BRL14 billion. A large part of the betting industry’s revenue comes from this vertical, and its prohibition could reduce monthly revenue to BRL600 million. Given this scenario, revenue could close 2026 at around BRL12 billion.
The revenue refers to federal taxes levied on the activity, such as Corporate Income Tax (IRPJ), Social Contribution on Net Profit (CSLL) and Social Integration Programme/Contribution to Social Security Financing (PIS/Cofins). The total also includes the direct tax on gross revenue.
Electioneering rhetoric fails to address the loss in revenue
Even with nearly BRL10 billion in revenue, President Lula continues to threaten the sector with harsh measures.
In addition to the loss of revenue, the government may also face legal challenges regarding potential restrictions on the sector. If that were to come to pass then, besides losing revenue, it would also have to pay compensation that could exceed 10 times what was collected from January to August of this year.
The industry has raised concerns that if the ban were to come in, funds would instead be channelled into the illegal market.