Gaming donors back Lombardo in Nevada governor race as odds shift to Ford

On Tuesday, Nevada voters will decide the state’s gubernatorial race between incumbent Joe Lombardo, a Republican, and Democratic candidate Aaron Ford, who currently serves as state attorney general. However the results shake out, the state’s gaming industry will be watching closely.

The fight to lead the biggest gaming market in the US is coming down to the wire, and traditional polls and prediction markets are diverging as the election approaches. On both Kalshi and Polymarket, Ford has pulled away since the beginning of October, and traders on both sites have pushed Ford’s odds up over 75% in recent weeks. Lombardo was previously listed as the favourite on both platforms through much of August and September before the abrupt flip this month.

Other poll sources, such as MS NOW, are much closer — that source lists Ford with a slim 45%-44% edge over Lombardo as of Friday. Another result published by Noble Predictive Insights on 6 October had Lombardo with a 42%-40% advantage over Ford. Recent elections have shown that both sources can be misaligned with results, as traditional polls did not predict US President Donald Trump’s victory in 2024 and prediction market odds did not foresee Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprise reelection this month.

Since 1998, Nevada has primarily been led by Republican governors. Kenny Guinn, Jim Gibbons and Brian Sandoval, all Republicans, held office for 20 consecutive years before Lombardo’s predecessor Steve Sisolak broke that streak in 2018.

Sisolak was in office during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, and state casinos were closed for an unprecedented 78 days that year in response to the outbreak. Lombardo, a former Clark County sheriff, defeated Sisolak in 2022. Now, Lombardo faces Ford, a former school teacher, attorney and state lawmaker who has served as attorney general since 2019.

Gaming donors flock to Lombardo

Lombardo has had the funding advantage through this point in the campaign cycle and is clearly the preferred candidate from gaming stakeholders. According to the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office, Lombardo received $6.1 million in direct contributions from 1 January – 30 September and his campaign spent $12.4 million during that span. Ford, by comparison, amassed $4.9 million in contributions and spent $5.2 million, per NSOS.

With regard to indirect contributions, gaming-affiliated donors have poured millions into Lombardo-backed political action committees. One committee, Nevada Way PAC, has received over $10 million in contributions, per Transparency USA.

Notable contributions include:

• $3 million from Station Casinos
• $1 million each from Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta, chairman and vice chairman of Station Casinos
• $1 million from Las Vegas Sands
• $350k from the South Point Hotel and Casino
• $200k from Anthony Marnell III, CEO of Marnell Companies
• $200k from Boyd Gaming
• $200k from the Venetian Las Vegas
• $170k from Caesars Entertainment
• $160k from Wynn Resorts
• $150k from MGM Resorts
• $100k from Fontainebleau Las Vegas
• $25k from the El Cortez Hotel and Casino
• $25k from Golden Entertainment
• $20k from Light & Wonder

Lombardo has been viewed as pro-business, and state gaming regulators have eliminated several outdated or unnecessary regulations at his direction. He has been endorsed by Trump, who appeared alongside Lombardo at an August rally in Las Vegas and urged the crowd to elect him by “a big number”.

Lombardo said at the event that he has to “take care” of the state’s gaming billionaires who facilitate employment, a comment Ford’s campaign has pounced on in the wake of rising costs related to Trump’s war on Iran. Nevada currently has the third-highest gas prices in the US, per AAA. In efforts to swing independents, Lombardo has distanced himself from Trump in recent weeks.

Unions back Ford

Ford, meanwhile, has drawn support from workers’ unions, particularly Culinary Union Local 226, Nevada’s most influential hospitality labour group. Culinary endorsed Ford in September, and Ford has supported the union in its quest to unionise Station’s Red Rock Casino after the US Supreme Court declined to hear Station’s appeal. In a Tuesday statement, Ford said he is “standing in solidarity” with Red Rock workers.

One Ford-backed PAC, A More Affordable Nevada, has received $11 million in contributions, including $400,000 from Illinois Governor Jay Pritzker, per Transparency USA. About $3 million came from the Forward Nevada PAC, which received:

• $1 million from the American Federation of State County & Municipal Employees
• $400k from hedge fund manager Aaron Sosnick
• $400k from attorney John Morgan, of Morgan & Morgan fame
• $250k from the Service Employees International Union
• $200k from the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
• $100k from the International Union of Operating Engineers

From a gaming perspective, Ford’s office has led the charge against prediction markets, and Nevada has been arguably the most successful state in combatting the controversial platforms.

Sports, entertainment and election-related event contracts are banned from trading within the state, and the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in favour of Nevada in August. While most gaming money has flowed to Lombardo, Ford’s victory has protected the Silver State’s biggest industry from what it views as an existential threat.

“Nevada has built the gold standard for gaming regulation, and we will not allow companies to circumvent those protections or operate outside the law,” Ford said in a statement following the Ninth Circuit ruling. “Our office is proud to have defended Nevada’s authority, and we will continue working to protect Nevadans and the integrity of our gaming industry.”