Suspected Ballon d’Or leak exposes Europe’s prediction markets enforcement gap

A suspected leak of the 2026 Ballon d’Or rankings has highlighted a regulatory gap facing Europe’s prediction market sector, with existing financial market rules potentially unable to address suspicious betting activity on platforms such as Polymarket.

On 23 October, three days before the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony was held, the French financial media outlet Upside reported 12 accounts on the prediction market platform Polymarket had wagered on the exact same order of the top five players for the men’s category.

The 12 accounts were created between 1-20 October and reportedly wagered $264,000. Of the accounts, six allegedly placed their wagers within 15 minutes of the account being created.

The exact order the 12 accounts predicted turned out to be correct, with Harry Kane named the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or, followed by Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi.

The wagers raised concerns of a leak, and the Guardian reported that France Football, the organisers of the event, had contacted the police, which subsequently opened an investigation.

European regulators step up pressure on prediction markets

While the suspected leak has raised questions about the legal treatment of betting on confidential information, Polymarket is already facing significant regulatory opposition across Europe.

In July the ANJ, the regulator of gambling in France, ordered internet service providers to block access to Polymarket, citing concerns over unlicensed gambling activities and player protection.

Having initially been geo-blocked in France in 2024, Polymarket has recently made attempts to lobby European regulators to be classified as a financial services company rather than a gambling operator.

The ANJ’s attitude to Polymarket reflects a wider view of European regulators towards prediction market platforms.

In June, nine European gambling regulators, including the ANJ, joined forces to tackle unlicensed prediction market platforms operating across the continent.

Why insider trading laws may not apply

The reported Ballon d’Or incident has raised questions about how European authorities can tackle potentially illicit trading on prediction markets, particularly when bets concern confidential information that falls outside conventional financial market regulations.

William O’Rorke, partner at the French law firm ORWL Avocats, pointed out that insider trading laws may not apply as a bet on a prize award falls outside of market abuse laws.

O’Rorke explained the European Union’s (EU) Market Abuse Regulation only applies to financial instruments traded on a financial market, or on a multilateral or organised trading facility within the EU.

A bet on the Ballon d’Or “does not pass this initial filter”, O’Rorke explained, as it “falls solely under the regulations governing betting”.

But while insider trading regulations may not apply to the bettors, O’Rorke said that those leaking the information could face prosecution.

They would likely be liable for breach of trust under Article 314-1 of the French Penal Code.

“In our view, a classified result entrusted under a seal of confidentiality, solely for the purpose of its announcement, falls within this framework, and the offense is punishable by five years’ imprisonment and a €375,000 fine,” O’Rorke said.

However, in the Ballon d’Or case, a bettor who knowingly used leaked rankings to place bets could face charges of receiving stolen goods under Article 321-1 of the French Penal Code.

Gibraltar could be a home for prediction markets

While regulators in major European markets have sought to restrict prediction market platforms – In June nine regulators, from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland, issued a joint warning against unlicensed platforms during the World Cup – Gibraltar has taken a markedly different approach, establishing itself as a potential regulatory hub for the sector.

It introduced a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction markets in July, with two operators now licensed.

At an event on Monday and Tuesday, billed as Europe’s first predictions market summit, Gibraltar’s gambling commissioner Andrew Lyman said: “Gibraltar has already moved from the theoretical to the practical application of a regulatory regime.

“The value of a Gibraltar licence is that it provides a well regulated home for the PM vertical.”