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Social casino dashboard: Q4 2019

| By Stephen Carter
bV1sion provides an exclusive overview of the social casino market in 2019, including market GGR forecasts, regional split and growth rates, as well as operator and game performance

bV1sion provides an exclusive overview of the social casino market in 2019, including market GGR forecasts, regional split and growth rates, as well as operator and game performance. All figures 2019 unless otherwise stated

2019 started strongly, but a more subdued Q3 performance led us to reduce our FY growth forecast to 6% year-on-year. While we are yet to receive operator data for Q4, our analysis suggests a slight improvement in growth rates on Q3.

Global GGR forecasts (see Chart 1 below)
We forecast mid-single digit percentage year-on-year growth going forward, with 2019 GGR expected to come in at $5.3bn (up from $5bn in 2018), growing to $5.7bn in 2020 and reaching $7.2bn by 2024.

The source of growth in 2019 has been an increase in daily average revenue per user (DARPU) rather than any meaningful increase in the user base.

bV1sion’s comprehensive database estimates this to continue as the dominant driver in 2020 (+5.4% y/y), although it also expects a slight growth in DAUs (+0.9% y/y).

We also expect Europe and Oceania to return to reasonable growth after a subdued 2019. However, we do not expect a return to double-digit growth rates, and operators looking to outperform this will have to do so by taking market share.

Regional GGR split (Chart 2)
In terms of geographical split, North America continues to dominate the social casino landscape, representing 71% of the entire market, with Oceania also having a strong presence with 17% of total global GGR in 2019, well ahead of Asia and Europe with 5%.

GGR growth by region (Charts 3 & 4)
Africa had the highest growth rate in 2019 of 14% year on year, albeit from a very low base, while Europe and Oceania saw very subdued growth (Chart 3).

In terms of dollar contribution to GGR growth, North America continues to drive the market, increasing GGR by $231m year-on-year, representing 82% of total global GGR growth in 2019 (Chart 4).

GGR by operator (Table 5 & Chart 6)
Playtika remains the leading publisher in the social casino space, with the $1.46bn GGR it is on track to generate in 2019 representing nearly 28% of the global total, more than double that of closest competitor Aristocrat.

GGR growth by operator (Chart 7)
In terms of individual company performance in 2019, Scientific Games has been the outstanding performer among the major operators, following the IPO of its social casino business SciPlay.

Although we’re yet to see Q4 figures, analysis of data provided by Mobile Action leads us to estimate full year GGR growth of c.15% for 2019.

By contrast, Zynga continues to see pressure on its social casino GGR. Aristocrat is going through a period of integration of its acquisition of Big Fish Games, and is now running a dual strategy of focusing on non-casino social games as well as social casino.

Top grossing US iPhone apps (Chart 8)
With the largest individual market of the US Playtika’s Slotomania game continues to dominate the iPhone rankings, and the operator also has another three games in the top 10, underlining its position as the number one operator in the market.

However, Jackpot Party continues to be a strong performer for Scientific Games and Aristocrat also maintains a number of games in the top 10.

bV1sion – The Social Casino Database –  is the social casino industry's leading market intelligence and data team, with in-depth KPIs on over 65 individual countries. bV1sion has a partnership with H2 Gambling Capital, which has a track record of 15 years focused on the global gambling industry, its projections have been influential in shaping legislators' and investors’ views of the gambling sector across the globe.


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