How has the UK operator landscape changed since the RGD hike was announced?

Eleven months ago, then-Chancellor Rachel Reeves used her Autumn Budget to announce a near-doubling of remote gaming duty (RGD). It was a move that sent shockwaves through the UK gambling industry. Since the higher rate took effect in April, the impact has become increasingly visible. Retail is shrinking, major operators are cutting jobs and the biggest players are positioning themselves to take market share.

Fast forward to this week, when the new Chancellor, John Healey, is set to deliver his first Budget on Wednesday. Operators face the prospect of yet another blow, with a rise in machine games duty widely expected. So how has the UK sector changed since the RGD hike was announced, and where could it be heading?

How big has the impact been?

Reeves’ Budget raised RGD from 21% to 40%, with the new rate coming into effect on 1 April this year. It also introduced a new general betting duty rate for remote betting of 25%, up from 15%, which comes into effect in April 2027.

Responding to the announcement last November, Betting and Gaming Council CEO Grainne Hurst described the tax increases as “excessive” and warned they could prove to be a “devastating hammer blow” to the UK sector.

Data from the Gambling Commission, covering the year before the new rate took effect, showed that as of 31 March 2026, there were 2,154 licensed gambling operators in the market. That is a 1.1% decrease compared to the same point in 2025.

However, that total fell every year between 2017 and 2025, and the latest drop was actually a marked improvement on previous years.

The overall picture doesn’t look as grim as some suggested, with total GGY up 4.4% to £17.5 billion, while remote casino, betting and bingo activity surged 6.9%.

H2 Gambling Capital Managing Director Ed Birkin told iGB the full impact of the RGD increase has yet to materialise. He argued that operators are continuing to compete aggressively for market share despite the higher tax burden.

“I don’t think it’s having a material impact yet,” he said of the effect on GGR.

That said, the picture has become clearer since the new rate came in.

A number of significant UK operators have announced cost-saving measures, with perhaps the most notable coming last week. Flutter announced a business restructure in the UK and Ireland that could lead to up to 1,400 job cuts.

Evoke shuttered around 200 of its William Hill shops earlier this year, while Betfred announced plans to close up to 132 stores in the UK, slashing its workforce by over 600 employees.

Additionally, Bet365 last month revealed plans to cut around 340 jobs, demonstrating the careful cost management UK operators are currently having to enforce.

Industry could be ‘decimated’

The job cuts and shop closures have fuelled fears of further contraction across the regulated sector.

Steve Donoghue, CEO and founder of Gambling Consultant, warned that Flutter’s redundancies would not be the last. He predicted the industry would be “decimated” and that “thousands” more jobs could be lost.

He also warned that higher taxes risk driving customers towards unlicensed gambling operators. Potentially it will expose them to greater risks and reduce the protections available to consumers.

Donoghue suggested the discourse over increasing taxes for the UK’s gambling sector is politically motivated. He told iGB: “Populist left wing puritanism is resurgent as we see in many forms. The fact that this industry with all its funds has been unable to push back the tide speaks volumes about their political strategy.”

Retail bearing the brunt

What’s clear from the shop closures is that while the RGD hike centred on online gambling, operators have largely looked to retail as the vertical to walk the proverbial plank.

The total number of gambling premises in Great Britain dropped 2% to 8,081 between April 2025 and March 2026. Retail GGY, meanwhile, fell 3.3% to £2.4 billion.

And with the significant number of shop closures announced since, that decrease could be even starker by the time the Gambling Commission publishes its next annual report.

The scenario for retail betting in the UK could get worse on Wednesday, too, when Healey delivers his Autumn Budget.

Ahead of the Budget, a group of Labour MPs wrote to Healey urging an increase in machine games duty (MGD). This is happening amid widespread speculation over further potential tax changes.

Currently set at 20%, MGD will almost certainly rise on Wednesday, though it’s unclear just how significantly it will increase.

Out of business by 2030

The Social Market Foundation has pushed for a doubling to 40%, though the increase could be as small as 5%.

Operators are fearful, and the warnings have been clear.

Jenningsbet CEO and owner Greg Knight told The Times that a doubling in MGD could lead to the closure of “100 shops”. In an interview with the Financial Times, Betfred owner Fred Done warned it could put retail betting out of business. “I believe that by 2030 we will have no betting shops”, Done said.

The BGC, meanwhile, highlighted modelling from EY that said a rise in MGD to 40% could lead to the loss of nearly 1,500 betting shops, 34 casinos and 16,000 jobs.

Scale looks likely to win out

While retail may be bearing the brunt of the RGD hike and the expected rise in MGD, online performance suggests that larger operators will be better placed to weather the changing tax landscape.

Entain’s Q3 results, for example, showed UK and Ireland online NGR rising 14% year-on-year.

CEO Stella David said Entain was also well placed to deal with an MGD increase. She claimed the company would be a “relative winner” and that it would gain market share in retail.

Even in announcing the 1,400 potential job cuts, Flutter’s UK and Ireland CEO Kevin Harrington said: “We remain confident that we are well placed to benefit from share gains given our position as the largest scale operator in the UK.”

That reflects comments from Richard Clarke, managing director at Flutter-owned brands Paddy Power and Betfair, who told iGB last month: “We’re a big business, and there are things we can do with one or two million that give us an advantage. We’d expect to take market share as a result of the squeeze.”

Birkin agreed that scale would be an important factor in determining which operators emerge strongest from the changing tax landscape. Although he suggested that agility would be equally important.

He added that smaller operators could be disproportionately affected by the changing market conditions. Potentially it will accelerate the shift in market share towards larger businesses, he said.

Eleven months on from Reeves’ Budget, the industry is still adjusting to one tax shock. On Wednesday, it will find out just how hard the next one will hit.