Debt, dollars, and deal-making: What macro markets mean for iGaming’s next move

Tariffs, treasury auctions and inflation chatter make headlines, but they’re not what’s driving real movement in iGaming. The overlooked force is liquidity. Shifts in global capital flow are quietly reshaping how risk is priced, how deals are structured and where valuations land.

For founders, investors and dealmakers, understanding these macro undercurrents isn’t optional – it’s essential for timing exits, raising capital and getting ahead of the next cycle.

In this piece, we explore the macroeconomic forces shaping capital accessibility, valuations and M&A appetite in the iGaming sector. Despite the uncertainty, there’s a strong argument that this could be one of the best windows we’ve seen in years.

Tariffs are a sideshow, liquidity is the main event

The recent flare-up in US-China trade rhetoric has reignited tariff concerns, particularly for land-based gaming businesses sourcing hardware from China. But, for iGaming firms, the impact is more psychological than operational. It’s market volatility, not component costs, that matters.

Some analysts argue the tariff taunts are more tactical than economic, designed to destabilise markets just enough to justify rate cuts. Whether intentional or not, the market’s reaction may be setting the stage for a liquidity pivot and that’s where things start to matter.

While tariffs might slow shipping lanes, it’s bond markets, interest rates and central bank balance sheets that ultimately drive iGaming capital flows.

The $9 trillion problem and the dollar diplomacy behind it

The US is facing a refinancing wall: Over $9 trillion in government debt is set to mature within the next 18 months. With interest costs already eating into federal budgets and bond markets starting to show signs of stress, pressure is mounting on the Fed to ease financial conditions. That could mean more rate cuts, renewed QE, or indirect forms of liquidity support.

But beyond the domestic playbook, there may be a deeper strategy unfolding. This is about more than balance sheets; it’s about preserving the dollar’s dominance. Much like Kissinger’s petrodollar agreements of the 1970s, there’s a case to be made that trade policy, geopolitical leverage and financial diplomacy are being quietly used to encourage foreign uptake of US treasuries.

The aim? Spread the debt load more evenly across global balance sheets and ensure that future treasury auctions aren’t met with silence. In doing so, the US can buy time, maintain funding flexibility and, crucially, avoid a default.

This matters for iGaming because these dynamics shape the backdrop for capital markets. If the strategy holds, we could see renewed investor risk appetite, lower rates, and a more accommodating environment for M&A. If it breaks… please throw me a life raft.

Liquidity: The invisible driver of valuation

Global liquidity reached record highs earlier this year, driven by central bank support and a softer US dollar. Historical cycles suggest we’re now in the latter stages of this liquidity wave, which typically peaks every five to six years.

Liquidity drives sentiment and sentiment drives valuations. There’s usually a three-month lag between liquidity changes and asset performance, so the recent uptrend may still have further to run.

But warning signs are emerging. US tax outflows have drained treasury cash accounts. The Fed has slowed its injections. China’s central bank is tightening to defend its currency. And rising bond volatility is increasing collateral requirements, effectively shrinking leverage.

In simple terms, the window is open, but it won’t stay that way forever.

For iGaming founders, this may be the moment to move

Macroeconomic shifts might seem abstract, but they’re already influencing how capital is priced, how buyers engage and what kind of deals get over the line.

Capital is more expensive. Even for firms without direct bond market exposure, financing through revolving credit facilities, convertibles or bank loans is tightening as interest rates remain elevated and geopolitical tensions persist.

• Buyers are more disciplined. The era of speculative M&A has passed. Deals now require clear value drivers and credible integration paths.
• The heyday valuations of the post-Covid boom are unlikely to return anytime soon – serious sellers need to price for today’s market, not yesterday’s.
• Strategic acquirers have the advantage. Companies with fat balance sheets can transact without relying on leverage.

The key takeaway? Strong assets are still getting strong terms. If you’ve invested in preparation, your timing may be perfect.

M&A momentum: Sentiment check for 2025

The iGaming sector saw robust deal flow throughout 2024, with around 50 transactions inked. However, a more cautious tone emerged in the first quarter of 2025, as shifting market sentiment and increased volatility caused some buyers to temporarily pause. Many of these transactions should regain momentum once market confidence returns.

Affiliate consolidation has been relatively quiet compared to activity among operators and suppliers, impacted by external headwinds including Google’s algorithm shifts, regulatory changes in Brazil, tighter cookie-tracking restrictions and growing issues with parasitic traffic.

Despite these pressures, the affiliate model remains fundamentally robust, especially within privately held businesses, many of which continue to show resilience and adaptability. The long-term outlook for quality affiliate assets is still positive, with growth expected to resume as businesses adjust to evolving market conditions.

Strategic deals continue, although often quietly and off-market. Buyers with conviction remain active behind the scenes, making strategic preparation and clear market positioning more critical than ever.

Regulation: Rewriting the map

Alongside macro, regulatory dynamics continue to reshape global iGaming flows.

• Brazil and South America remain attractive markets due to their increasing regulated footprint and a land-grab is still in play to be ready for the 2026 World Cup.
• The US market’s state-by-state rollout is lacklustre, but plenty of money is still being made in sweeps.
• The UK’s spring budget passed without mentioning gambling reform. That silence may indicate continued stability.
• Thailand is exploring regulation. So are several other Southeast Asian markets.
• UAE’s emerging regulatory framework positions it as the next significant frontier.
• India is a sleeping giant.
• Unregulated and crypto-fuelled platforms are booming. Operators in over-regulated jurisdictions like Germany, the Netherlands and parts of the US are increasingly drawn to sweepstakes and crypto casino models.

For founders, understanding where regulatory tailwinds or constraints exist can make or break the narrative.

So, what’s the trade?

Here’s how we see it:

1. Liquidity remains elevated. This supports risk assets in the short term.
2. Quality will be rewarded. Capital hasn’t disappeared; it’s just more discerning.
3. Inflation risk is real. If inflation spikes again, the Fed may be forced into hawkish territory, tightening conditions quickly.
4. The fundamentals of iGaming are intact. Recurring revenue, global expansion and digital scalability continue to attract serious attention.

The landscape is shifting. But for those who are ready, it’s not a threat – it’s an edge.

Final thought: Position with purpose

Yes, things look calm – April’s inflation read was 2.33%. Markets are climbing. Liquidity is flowing. But under the surface, risks remain. Inflation could return. Treasury demand could weaken. The Fed’s balancing act is delicate.

Still, we’re optimistic.

“We’re not fully deployed, but we’ve invested more in the last six months than we have in years. That should tell you something.”

For founders thinking about growth, capital raises, or an exit, this may be your window. And for the right companies, that window could open even wider in the months ahead.

Preparation beats prediction. Always.