Prediction market roundup: Robins pleased as DraftKings ascends to bronze in rankings

Nearly 30 years ago, David Letterman poked fun of himself after his late night show slipped in the ratings.

As Letterman fell behind rival Jay Leno and ABC’s Nightline, he took the slight in stride. Rather than sulk, Letterman displayed a massive billboard next to Leno’s that read: “No. 3 In Late Night,” along with a picture of his grinning mug.

On Thursday at Next Predicts in New York, Jason Robins proudly proclaimed that DraftKings has advanced to a podium position in the intense race for notional volume. Unlike Letterman, DraftKings appears to be on an upward trajectory given that the multi-billion operator just launched a market making exchange several months ago.

From a product standpoint, Robins believes DraftKings is well-positioned given the company’s robust Research & Development team. DraftKings also has an advantage over nascent prediction-market operators in cross-selling its predictions segment with other divisions such as online sports betting, iCasino and lottery.

For the week ended 18 October, DraftKings’ exchange (DKeX) surpassed $3 billion in notional volume, ranking third among operators, according to Aldrin Research. While DraftKings ranked just behind Polymarket’s offshore platform, the exchange slightly topped Novig, the fourth-place operator.

Last Sunday, for Week 6 of the NFL season, the DraftKings exchange recorded notional volume of $316 million, Aldrin found, the most in company history.

“We only launched a few months ago and we’re already the clear No. 3,” Robins said during a fireside chat with CNBC’s Contessa Brewer.

Hegseth issues ban against insider trading

Days before the 2026 US Midterm elections, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth issued a memo banning all Defense Department personnel from transacting in event contracts when given inside information.

The 20 October memo prohibits all personnel members from engaging in financial transactions using nonpublic information, regardless of whether it is classified or unclassified intelligence. The prohibition also applies to all financial platforms, including traditional betting platforms and prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

“Make no mistake why this matters, our enemies watch movements in these markets,” Hegseth wrote. “When an American Service member, intelligence professional, or other Department civilian engages in a financial transaction on a military outcome, they create a signal. That signal can be aggregated, correlated and exploited by hostile foreign intelligence services to anticipate our movements, targets and timing.”

In April, the Justice Department indicted Gannon Van Dyke, a US special forces soldier. Van Dyke is allegedly made more than $400,000 on a series of Polymarket trades while unlawfully utilising classified information. The soldier is accused of using the information on a military excursion to wager on the removal of Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro.

While the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates event contracts on the federal level, the transactions apparently were placed on Polymarket’s offshore platform. David Miller, enforcement director at the CFTC, spoke on Thursday at the Next conference. Miller emphasized that the division’s priority is “policing fraud, abuse and manipulation.” In addressing recent enforcement actions, Miller noted that anyone who thinks the division is made up of “shrinking violets” is “sorely mistaken.”

Utah AG sues Kalshi

Prior to the start of the Next conference, Utah Attorney General Derek Brown filed a lawsuit against Kalshi alleging that the operator violated state laws by illegally offering events contracts to residents in the Beehive State.

Utah’s Constitution bars the Legislature from authorising gambling, and state law makes it illegal, according to a press release from the Attorney General’s office. The complaint also alleges Kalshi’s activity is a public nuisance that has created substantial ongoing harm. The lawsuit seeks restitution of up to $60 million.

“Kalshi runs an online casino in Utah and calls it a prediction market. That violates Utah law,” said Brown in a statement. “Not only do our state laws ban gambling but Utah is one of only two states where gambling is also prohibited under the state constitution. For 130 years, Utah has been clear: gambling has no place here, and we will enforce our laws.” 

Earlier this month, a Mormon leader issued a stern rebuke against gambling, including prediction market activity. Elder D. Todd Christofferson called the activity morally wrong, explaining that the desire to obtain “something for nothing,” requires an individual to seek advancement at the expense of another.

In a statement, Kalshi wrote that derivatives on sports events are overseen federally by the CFTC, adding that no single state should have a “veto,” over it.