Prediction market roundup: Kalshi lands Canadian deal, Polymarket trader loses millions on World Cup
Hours before Canada’s World Cup match on Thursday versus Qatar, Kalshi announced the launch of a new prediction market north of the US border.
Approximately three months after receiving authorisation from Canadian regulators to offer event and forecast contract trading, Wealthsimple introduced Wealthsimple Predict on 18 June. Under the partnership announced with Kalshi, Wealthsimple will provide users with the ability to trade Kalshi-based event contracts in numerous categories.
Through the predictions app, Toronto-based Wealthsimple will offer users nearly 4,000 Kalshi-based event contracts on the standalone Wealthsimple Predict app, according to a joint statement from the companies.
In March, the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) authorised Wealthsimple to offer certain event contracts with a 30-day settlement period or longer. Wealthsimple plans to go live with the predictions app at some point this summer.
Wealthsimple is the second investment dealer to receive regulatory approval from CIRO for prediction markets, behind Interactive Brokers, which gained approval in 2025. While the regulator authorised Wealthsimple to offer contracts on financial markets, climate and economic indicators, two other offerings — sports and election contracts — are prohibited under local regulations.
Kalshi is authorised to offer event contracts in the US, with federal authority from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Through its recent expansion, Kalshi offers event contracts to users in 140 countries.
“Prediction markets are the fastest-growing segment of global financial markets, letting traders turn an opinion into a position on the factors that shape our world,” said Brett Huneycutt, co-founder and chief product officer at Wealthsimple. “Until now, Canadians have had limited access, Wealthsimple Predict gives Canadians a clean, well-designed way to access these markets.”
Report: World Cup trader loses millions in 24 hours
A breakthrough performance by Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha in Monday’s World Cup matchup against Spain handed a Polymarket trader a near million-dollar loss.
Cape Verde, which entered the World Cup ranked 67th in the world, forged a 0-0 tie against the Spanish powerhouse, arguably producing the most stunning result of the tournament. Prior to the match, a trader staked $999,068 on Spain to win, a transaction that carried a payout of $1.09 million, Polymarket confirmed in a post on X. Spain, the reigning European champions, arrived at the World Cup as one of the pre-tournament favourites.
Traders on Polymarket also notched several notable wins. One anonymous trader with the screename “fishalive” won $4.7 million on a $400,000 trade, according to Polymarket. The trader wagered that Spain would not defeat Cape Verde, a trade that contained pre-match odds of 9%.
Another trader was not as fortunate. A user named “flickraw” placed $2.7 million on the Netherlands to defeat Japan on 14 June. He appeared headed for a $5.8 million win, until the Japanese equalised with a late goal in the 88th minute. Following the 2-2 draw, the trader put another $1.5 million on Belgium to defeat Egypt the next day. He lost that trade on an own goal by Belgium in the 66th minute.
Polymarket launches survivor contest; Novig approved
Through a new partnership with Splash Sports, Polymarket is poised to offer the world’s largest pro football survivor contest later this year.
The partnership announced Thursday will bring prediction markets to Splash beginning with the start of the 2026 NFL regular season. Under the deal, the contest will offer a guaranteed $21 million in prizes, an amount that will make the offering the largest in the world. Circa Sports, which previously topped the ranking for guaranteed payouts, announced last month that it will guarantee $20 million for the 2026 incarnation.
Splash Sports, a skill-based social sports gaming website, will integrate Polymarket’s event-driven trading into its platform as a CFTC-registered introducing broker.
“We believe that partnering with them for the biggest survivor contest in history is the perfect way to bring prediction markets to NFL fans at scale,” said Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan in a statement.
In other news, Novig announced that the CFTC approved its application to operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). Novig has yet to disclose an initial list of states for launch when the platform goes live.
“Novig is the first sports prediction market built by sports traders for sports traders. The momentum we’ve seen to date reinforces that there is real demand for a more efficient way for sports fans to participate in sports markets,” Novig CEO Jacob Fortinsky said in a statement.
Matt Rybaltowski
Matt is primarily responsible for long-form feature coverage on complex sports betting scandals. He also provides coverage on finance, M&A and other technological developments.