Study shows Brazilian families lost $12.5 billion on gambling in 2025
Brazilian households lost BRL62.5 billion ($12.5 billion) to betting operators in 2025, a study has found.
At the same time, these companies handled BRL350.97 billion in transactions via Pix (instant cash transfer).
This conclusion comes from the third edition of the Fiscal Bulletin of Brazilian States. The figures are higher than those recorded by the Secretariat of Lotteries and Betting (SPA), the regulator of betting in Brazil.
The study was prepared by Comsefaz (National Committee of Secretaries of Finance) in partnership with the Celso Furtado International Center for Development Policy. It utilised data from the Central Bank, EPAE (Statistics on Payments by Economic Activity) and the authors’ own calculations.
Illegal market
A study by LCA Consultores, a market intelligence firm based in São Paulo, for the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) estimated that underground betting operations accounted for between 41% and 51% of the market. The difference between the estimates from Comsefaz (BRL62.5 billion) and the Ministry of Finance (BRL36.9 billion) was BRL25.6 billion. This figure represented approximately 41% of the total estimated in the report. This percentage aligned with the lower end of the range projected by LCA.
According to the Brazilian newspaper Folha, the study highlighted that the regulation of betting operators coincided with a structural shift in Pix transfers from individuals to businesses in the arts, culture, sports and recreation sectors.
The BRL62.5 billion figure represented the net transaction value (money wagered minus the amount returned as winnings). According to the report, this amount was equivalent to approximately 0.68% of the gross disposable income of Brazilian households. This indicated that the growth of betting operations has begun to have measurable effects on the financial dynamics of Brazilian households.
Pix
The report analysed the impact of regulated betting operators on Pix transactions between October 2024 and March 2026.
To do this, researchers estimated the expected volume of transfers from individuals to companies in the arts, culture, sports and recreation sectors, assuming the regulatory change had not occurred. They then compared this projection with the figures recorded. The difference between the two scenarios was interpreted as the impact attributable to betting operators.
As this was a statistical simulation, the authors emphasised that the result did not represent a proven cause-and-effect relationship.
The report highlighted that the ban on betting for Bolsa Família beneficiaries led to a slowdown in transaction growth. This brought the estimated transfer volume closer to the observed volume.
According to the study, the fact that the ban had a measurable effect on the aggregate transaction volume suggested that lower-income families play a significant role in the Brazilian online sports betting market.