Episode 43: NFL prediction markets and the M&A value debate

Right to the Source returns after Nigel Eccles’ candid interview. Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin touch on FanDuel again in the latest episode, then explore a few key themes in the gambling industry. On top of that, there is something our listeners have been missing: prediction markets are back.

NFL prediction markets: headwind or hype?

Ed shares H2’s unreleased prediction market data set. The NFL sportsbook handle is roughly flat for the year, up 0.4% in reporting states and down 1% once Florida is included. That is the net result of around 4% organic growth and a 4%-5% headwind from prediction markets.

Prediction markets are also taking a bigger slice of the pie. Their share of the combined handle in regulated states has jumped from around 5% six months ago to roughly 15%. Aggressive spending around the World Cup and through August drove much of that rise. 

Which state feels the biggest headwind? The hint: it has a warmer climate. Tune in to find out.

Robin and Ed also explore the legal uncertainty around prediction markets. Ed relays views from a recent US trip, where many expect the fight between states and the CFTC to reach the Supreme Court around 2027-28. Events are already moving. As Matt Rybaltowski reported, the NFL has since filed an amicus brief urging the Supreme Court to review Flaherty vs KalshiEx, LLC.

Lottomatica and Cirsa: does M&A really add value?

The episode wraps up with a lively exchange on acquisitions in the industry. Robin and Ed compare a few recent deals, including the earlier Banijay and Tipico merger, with Flutter as the central case study. 

Ed argues nobody has proven that Flutter’s acquisitions created value beyond FanDuel. Where does Lottomatica’s acquisition of Cirsa fit in? Tune in to hear the pair’s verdict.