Episode 39: Dutch tax miss, World Cup prediction markets
Robin Harrison and Ed Birkin return after iGB L!VE to share some interesting numbers on the World Cup and Europe, starting with a Dutch gambling tax hike that has missed its target by some distance. From there, the pair also cover the latest updates on Ireland’s new licensing regime.
Prediction market activity during the World Cup
H2 has been tracking prediction market activity throughout the tournament. By volume, DR Congo was the most backed country not to win the World Cup, while France, Spain and Portugal led the standings for teams most backed to win.
There was also a very interesting finding in terms of the matches with the highest losing trades. Tune in to find out what the matches are. You will be surprised by their commonality, which in fact favours traditional sportsbooks the most. Yet, prediction markets appear to have been caught out by them this time.
Dutch gambling tax hike reality check
The Netherlands raised its gambling tax in two phases, from 30.5% to 34.2% in January 2025 and then to 37.8% in January 2026. The Dutch Treasury predicted these hikes would generate an additional €108 million in 2025 and €216 million in 2026.
The actual numbers came in far lower: just €2 million extra in 2025, with 2026 estimated at €57 million. Ed is careful to note it is not just the tax rate to blame. New deposit limits, advertising curbs and the fading of the post-Euro 2024 revenue spike all played a role in shrinking the taxable base.
What is harder to ignore is the impact on land-based venues, with casino and gaming hall visits down around 11% year on year and several operators citing the tax hike as a factor in closures. The pair hint that tax hikes do not always work as governments expect.
While in Europe, the pair also discuss the new licensing regime under GRAI in Ireland, which took effect on 1 July. Currently 89% of online betting is onshore but only 35% of the total market, because all iGaming remains offshore and unregulated.
Platform providers like Pragmatic Solutions have already gone live to support operators through the transition. Check out the episode to find out H2’s estimates of what the market could be worth as regulation extends further.
iGB L!VE highlight: Africa Summit
Robin’s highlight from the show was the Africa Summit, which brought together regulators from across the continent, including Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya, alongside industry bodies such as the African Tax Administration Forum.
The event coincided with a high-level session hosted by the African iGaming Alliance, where regulators discussed sustainable taxation, channelisation and player protection, and helped advance plans for a continent-wide Africa Safer Gambling Week.
Ed, who moderated a tax panel at the summit, raises a pointed question before signing off: if operators in some markets quietly absorb or avoid punitive tax rates, can the industry still credibly argue against high taxation elsewhere?
Check out the full Right to the Source series for data and insights.