How will the US-Canada trade dispute impact Las Vegas?

When US President Donald Trump made an appearance in Las Vegas earlier this month to tout the benefits of his federal tax changes for tipped workers, he couldn’t help but mention foreign relations, most notably with Canada, a vital feeder market for the city — “Canada’s nasty, they are, they’re nasty,” Trump told the crowd gathered at the Red Rock Casino Resort and Spa.

The comments continued a theme of antagonism toward Canada in Trump’s second term, and three weeks later, the US and its northern neighbours are locked in a trade dispute that is growing colder by the day. Following a series of failed talks, the US imposed 50% tariffs on about $20 billion worth of Canadian goods over the weekend. Ottawa has since responded with its own retaliatory tariff hikes on American goods that will take effect 8 September.

A statement from the White House on Tuesday declared that “Canada has been ripping off the United States for decades”, with a record of abuse that was “clear and deliberate”. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in his own statement that he “recognised from the beginning that America has changed, and that we will not return to our old relationship.”

Las Vegas stakeholders have kept a close eye on the two countries’ relations since the start of 2025. Total international travel to Harry Reid International Airport declined 7% last year, and the segment is down a further 9% thus far in 2026. The city’s two biggest Canadian airlines, Air Canada and WestJet, saw traffic decline 22% and 28% in 2025, respectively. Through July, Air Canada is down 13% and WestJet has slipped 23%.

Hornbuckle to Canada: ‘We need you’

The federal government’s increasingly hardline stance towards Canada has inspired Las Vegas stakeholders to take matters into their own hands.

Steve Hill, CEO of the Las Vegas Visitors and Convention Authority, has travelled to Canada multiple times in the last year to help assuage concerns and normalise relations with would-be visitors. Hill and MGM Resorts CEO Bill Hornbuckle took another trip across the border this month for that same purpose.

“Las Vegas loves you, we need you, the reason I’m sitting here is [because] we want you,” Hornbuckle said on Your Morning Vancouver 18 August. “Canada has been the No. 1 international destination for Las Vegas and for the United States forever.”

Three downtown Las Vegas casinos owned by Derek Stevens — Circa, The D and Golden Gate — rolled out the “Vegas At Par” promotion this year, which offered hotel and gaming deals to Canadian visitors by matching currencies. With an exchange rate of $1 USD to $1.3 CAD, that gave a significant discount to travellers with Canadian IDs. Stevens, who grew up in Michigan near the border, said on X earlier this year that “Las Vegas misses Canada”.

Overall Canadian travel to the US fell 25% in 2025, per data from the Canadian government. Visitation to the US fell from 39 million in 2024 to 29.1 million in 2025, and Canadian spending in the US declined by $2.3 billion last year.

“Following the change in the U.S. administration in early 2025 and the implementation of America First policies, Canadian travel sentiment shifted abruptly. By the end of 2025, return border crossings from the United States accounted for two-thirds of all Canadian resident border crossings from abroad,” statisticians Laura Presley and Carter McCormack wrote in the data report.

Could hockey stoke tourism?

The second half of the calendar year is a busy time for Las Vegas. Holiday travel for Labor Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year’s is a major driver, and sports and special events have become increasingly important as well. Football, hockey, women’s basketball, F1 racing and college sports all take place during the fall and winter, and a late-summer diplomatic spat between the US and Canada only adds to the yearly pressure to perform.

Of the many events on the calendar, hockey could play a role in breaking the ice and encouraging travel. The Las Vegas Golden Knights, fresh off their third Stanley Cup Finals appearance in nine years, will host five games against Canadian teams in October and November: the Toronto Maple Leafs, Calgary Flames, Ottawa Senators, Vancouver Canucks and Montreal Canadiens.

Las Vegas-based consultant Brendan Bussmann of B Global Advisors told iGB that hockey fans are one of three main Canadian travel groups, along with business and leisure travellers. He noted the improved performance of Air Canada relative to WestJet as being reflective of increased business travel, but overall Bussmann is not overly concerned with Canadian trends long-term.

“I think [Canada] will continue to play a significant role in the overall international mix, at least in the short-term,” he said. “As we’ve seen over the last year, that market has started to come back and even with the latest volley back and forth, people will come here whether it’s for hockey, whether it’s for vacation or whether it’s for anything else.”