SOFTSWISS report: North America drives growth as Europe’s regulatory squeeze intensifies

In its iGaming Trends 2027 report SOFTSWISS noted further online gambling growth globally, but with notable diversity in the way regions are operating and regulating the sector, particuarly through evolving taxation policies.

The report, released this week, drew from H2 Gambling Capital data and insights from WorldGaming, as well as major tech players like AWS.

SOFTSWISS projects global online gambling gross gaming revenue (GGR) will increase from $349 billion in 2026 to $415.5 billion by 2028. This corresponds to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% over the two-year period. 

Notably, mobile platforms are identified as the primary catalyst, with mobile’s share of onshore GGR expected to climb from 45% in 2026 to 78% in 2028.

Europe: Mature market faces regulatory pressures

According to the report’s regional breakdown, Europe remains the largest regulated online gambling market and continues to grow. GGR is forecast to rise from $85.3 billion in 2026 to $95.2 billion in 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 6%.

Despite this growth, the region faces increasing regulatory scrutiny, including more intrusive taxation and product restrictions. 

Key regulatory interventions include limit-setting measures across 30 European jurisdictions and product-level rules such as Germany’s slot stake limit, mandatory five-second spin delays and a €1,000 monthly cross-operator deposit limit.

In addition, the UK is moving toward online slot stake caps of £5 and £2.

The Netherlands also enforces deposit checks at €700 per month for over-24s and €300 for younger players.

The report warned that such tax increases and product restrictions may incentivise customers to migrate to unlicensed operators, negatively impacting the competitiveness of licensed platforms.

The concept of channelisation is highlighted as a crucial metric across European jurisdictions.

For instance, the Netherlands’ regulated channel share dropped below 50% in the first half of 2025 following a tax hike to 37.8% of GGR. 

In Great Britain, offshore GGR is forecast to rise by 110% by 2028, despite remote gaming duty (RGD) increases.

In addition, the UK is eyeing a possible machine gaming duty (MGD) increase in the upcoming autumn 2026 budget that has been forecast by industry leaders to create a hole in the UK land-based betting scene.

Further afield in Europe, Central and Eastern Europe were highlighted as innovation hubs, producing exportable operators like Greece’s Betano and Romania’s Super Technologies.

North America: Fastest growth but regulatory complexity

North America was projected to be the fastest-growing major market, with online GGR forecast to climb from $58.1 billion in 2026 to $76.6 billion in 2028, at a 15% CAGR across both the US and Canada.

Notably, the US remains fragmented, with full online casino authorisation in just seven states and sports betting operational in 38 states.

US online GGR grew 27.6% in 2025, reaching a record $10.74 billion. Michigan, New Jersey and Pennsylvania together accounted for nearly 90% of this total.

The report noted how the rise of prediction markets and exchanges has created a divide with digital-native betting operators. This evolving landscape faces ongoing legal challenges, including an ongoing Supreme Court review.

“The US market has and always will be a marathon and not a sprint,” says Brendan Bussmann, managing partner at B Global, featuring in the report.

“It’s a different conversation for a host of reasons in terms of the nature of gambling, but also in the stakeholders trying to bring a regulated market,” he adds. “Until these stakeholders can get a single plan, delays will continue to persist at the legislative level”. 

Latin America: Rapid channelisation and Brazil was substantial market

Latin America’s online gambling market is predicted to grow steadily, with GGR rising from $19.7 billion in 2026 to $22.7 billion in 2028, at a CAGR of 7%.

The region has experienced one of the sharpest increases in channelisation in recent years with the introduction of licensed betting in Brazil almost tow years ago. According to the report regulated market share swelled from 15% in 2022 to 65% in 2026 and is forecast to reach 70% by 2028.

The report, published before Brazil announced the abrupt closure of its legal online betting industry on Friday, described the market as substantial. It reached federal betting-tax revenues of R$3.397 billion in Q1 2026, marking a 123.7% year-on-year increase.

There has been a 141% increase in the opening of unauthorised gambling platforms since President Lula announced the provisional measure on Friday. 

SOFTSWISS’ report details how Brazil’s tax revenue was expected to rise from 12% in 2026 to 15% by 2028.

Colombia’s emergency 19% VAT on deposits in 2025 reportedly cut online GGR by nearly 30%, before being suspended. Peru’s 1% levy on wagers has drawn criticism as “catastrophic”. 

The report also emphasised the importance of local payment methods – for example, Brazil’s instant Pix solution accounted for 91% of payment transactions in the market.

Africa: Local brands lead amid payment challenges

Africa’s online GGR is forecast to grow from $13.6 billion in 2026 to $17 billion in 2028, (CAGR 12%). Sports betting remains the dominant segment (79% of online GGR in 2026), although online casino is growing quickly from a smaller base.

South Africa is Africa’s most advanced market with interactive gross win projected to exceed $5 billion by 2030.

However, a 2025 court ruling restricting fixed-odds casino games has driven an estimated 62% of gambling activity underground, diverting roughly R50 billion offshore annually.

The report noted that high processing fees (3%-6% of deposits) presented significant cost challenges, prompting experiments such as a rand-pegged stablecoin trial to reduce payment costs.

According to the report, markets with promising growth potential on a risk-adjusted basis include Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Nigeria offers scale but presents regulatory complexities.

“Africa is increasingly recognised as one of the most dynamic and strategically important regions in global gambling,” said Peter Emolemo Kesitilwe, CEO of African iGaming Alliance. 

“Regulatory frameworks are maturing, digital infrastructure continues to improve and many jurisdictions are actively exploring how to balance innovation, consumer protection and sustainable market growth”. 

Asia and Oceania: An offshore problem and a mature market

The Asia and Middle East region shows significant online gambling demand but with limited legal domestic frameworks. The region’s online GGR is projected at $162.8 billion in 2026, rising to $193.7 billion in 2028 (CAGR 9%), much of which originates offshore.

The UAE granted its first licence to operator Momentum, which today operates the country’s only licensed iGaming and betting site, Play971.

Oceania is considered a mature market with modest forecast growth, seeing online GGR increase from $9.5 billion in 2026 to $10.3 billion in 2028 (CAGR 4%). Australia sustains the highest per-capita gambling spend worldwide. 

Tax design and channelisation are overarching themes

The report outlines several overarching themes across each region. 

The first was tax design and timing. Aggressive and complex taxation schemes tend to emerge earlier in market development, often upon launch, with measures such as deposit levies and per-wager charges altering player behaviour more rapidly than headline tax rates suggest. Although this is not the case in mature markets like the UK.

Channelisation is also emphasised. Measurement of wagering retention within regulated markets is critical for policy formation, as diminished regulated market competitiveness can prompt player migration offshore.

“What worries me is that some policymakers still underestimate how quickly players can migrate to the black market if the regulated experience becomes less competitive,” says Gonzalo Perez, CEO at Apuesta Total. 

“In iGaming, the real competition isn’t another licensed operator, it’s the unregulated one that pays no taxes and follows no rules.” 

Read through all the sector trends from the report here.