Codere Online CEO ‘keeping an eye’ on prediction markets
Codere Online is “keeping an eye” on the prediction markets space, the company’s CEO Aviv Sher tells iGB.
Sher first hinted that Codere Online could look at prediction markets to iGB in May, when he suggested it could prove to be a “really nice extension” to its existing offering.
When asked for an update, Sher says it wi a “realistic option” for Codere Online, although it has not yet made its move into the sector.
It could prove a particularly useful addition in certain geographies, he mentions.
“I think it complements some of our strategy in Mexico towards, let’s say, the southern part of the US, the Spanish-speaking people,” he says.
“Maybe next year it will come, but we are still monitoring it. I think prediction markets can be a nice addition to our portfolio.”
Plans to ‘substantially increase’ current revenue
It has been a strong period of late for Codere Online.
The company raised its FY2026 guidance after a strong Q2, in which it reported record NGR of €69.4 million ($77.6 million), as well as €5.8 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Codere Online now expects to reach NGR of between €255 million to €265 million by the end of the year, while also generating adjusted EBITDA of €20 million to €25 million.
“We are pretty sure that we will meet the new guidance,” Sher notes.
The company is currently in the process of formulating a new five-year plan that looks set to include lofty targets for Codere Online’s next growth phase.
“Our goal is to substantially increase the revenues that we have today, and continue to grow there,” Sher says.
Sher has prioritised investment over immediate profitability, adding: “We could have generated more EBITDA, but we decided to invest extra money into the current markets.”
Keen to see regulatory stability in core markets
Codere Online’s two strongest markets are Mexico and its home nation of Spain.
In Q2 of this year, the two combined for €63.7 million in NGR, with both growing by over 20% year-on-year.
With Mexico and Spain accounting for over 90% of Codere Online’s Q2 NGR, Sher hopes to see more regulatory stability so the company can continue its strong growth trajectory.
Mexico hiked its tax rate to 50% of GGR from the start of 2026, while in Spain, the regulator will introduce joint deposit limits in 2027, with further regulatory changes seemingly incoming.
“I think the regulator in Spain is pushing us more and more,” Sher explains. “I already in the past said that its goal is to lower the GGR in the country, while our goal is to be able to grow with the GGR and pay more taxes to the country. So we’re kind of in an opposite direction on that.”
Frustrating for Sher is what he sees as a lack of enforcement against unlicensed operators in Spain, arguing regulators are placing increasing restrictions on licensed businesses while allowing the black market to grow at the expense of both operators and government tax revenues.
“This lack of enforcement is not just working against us; it’s working against the government,” he continues. “And instead of using part of the money that we are paying in taxes to enforce black market regulation, they are not doing so, and only putting more and more restrictions on us, which pushes eventually the players to the unregulated brands, without any fear or any consequences to them.
“So it’s a lose-lose situation for us. For our players, worse and worse player experience. And for the regulator, while putting in more and more restrictions, less and less revenues from taxes.”
NFL partnership offers route to Mexican growth
Alongside exploring prediction markets, Codere Online is looking to strengthen its position in Mexico through sports partnerships, having signed a multi-year agreement with the NFL last month.
Sher said the deal would give Codere Online access to betting promotion opportunities during NFL games that its competitors would not have, while providing exposure through a major sporting brand in a market where American football has an established following.
“NFL in Mexico is quite a big thing, so we have good exposure,” he says. “Of course, [the NFL is] an amazing brand to connect to our brand. We are very excited for this partnership.”
He adds that Codere Online takes a relatively conservative approach to sponsorship spending, assessing potential returns before committing to deals.
“We try to have an ROI on that, which is not common in the industry,” he notes. “I think we will see the ROI after a few years, and we’re very excited. It’s a big partner for us in Mexico right now.”