Major upset by Leading Change in Travers disrupts race for 3-Year Old Horse of the Year

At the 2016 Travers Stakes, a lightly raced Arrogate demolished the field by 13 ½ lengths while setting a track record at 10 furlongs, the classic distance in thoroughbred racing.

Listed at 11/1, Arrogate’s victory in his fifth career start proved to be a springboard for a pulsating win over California Chrome at the season-ending Breeders Cup Classic. On Saturday, Leading Change illustrated that a fast-developing horse with even less seasoning could capture The Midsummer Derby at historic Saratoga Race Course.

Urged by the left-handed whip of jockey Manny Franco, Leading Change sprinted past front-running Napoleon Solo to defeat the reigning Preakness winner by half a length. The son of 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner also defeated Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo and multiple stakes winners in just his third career start.

As with Arrogate, Leading Change triumphed at double-digit odds, returning $22.76 to win on a $2 wager. Trainer Brad Cox, who previously won the Travers in 2021 with Essential Quality, initially planned to run Leading Change last fall at Keeneland as a 2-year-old. But a minor bone bruise forced a scratch and stunted his development.

Now, a perfect 3-for-3 lifetime, Leading Change broke his maiden in June with a 6 ½-length win at Churchill Downs around one turn. Leading Change followed with a narrow victory in July’s Indiana Derby, demonstrating to Cox and owner Wathnan Racing that he could handle two turns. Cox and Wathnan’s Case Clay were so confident that they entered Leading Change in the Travers over Commandment, another Cox trainee that finished second in the Jim Dandy.

“We were very confident going in. And when I say we, I mean Brad’s confidence translated to my confidence,” said Clay, who serves as US racing manager for Wathnan Racing.

Near track record for Englishman

Golden Tempo, the winner of the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, faced traffic issues down the stretch when Napoleon Solo cut off the rail. The third place finish from Golden Tempo ended his two-race winning streak. The 2/1 favourite in the Travers is being pointed to the Breeders Cup Classic by trainer Cherie DeVaux.

DeVaux fared better on the Travers undercard when Englishman demolished the field in the Grade I H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes. With jockey Jose Ortiz aboard, Englishman bolted out of the gate for a two-length lead after a quarter-mile, then completed the next two quarters in under 23 seconds each to run six furlongs in a scintillating 1:08.4. Under a hand ride from Ortiz, Englishman crossed the wire in 1:20.71, three-tenths off the track record.

When contested at seven furlongs, only three horses in the history of the Jerkens have finished in under 1:21. For his efforts, Englishman received a Beyer speed figure of 117. By comparison, Leading Change recorded a Beyer of 103 in the Travers. After earning a 115 Beyer in June’s Woody Stephens Stakes, Englishman has two of the three-highest Beyers this year on US soil.

“It was another electrifying performance,” said DeVaux on Sunday. “He’s an exciting horse, I would be hard pressed to have another horse like him in my barn, ever.”

DeVaux noted Sunday that she will likely train Englishman up to the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. A Beyer of 122 by Knightsbridge in the Pacific Classic ranks as the highest in the US this year.

Movement on the Breeders Cup futures market

Hours after the completion of the Travers, Sovereignty closed as the 3/1 favourite on Sunday upon the conclusion of Pool #1 of the Breeders’ Cup Classic futures pool.

Sovereignty, the winner of the Grade I Whitney, missed last year’s Classic with a fever. Sovereignty ranks just ahead of defending champion Forever Young and Golden Tempo at 9/2 and 8/1, respectively. Despite the defeat, Golden Tempo dropped from previous odds of 12/1.

“He exited the race in good order, we’ll just keep marching on to the Breeders’ Cup,” said DeVaux on Sunday. “He ran a better race than he’s been running. Golden Tempo is a horse that needs things to go his way and unfortunately got stuck on the inside and got stopped a few times in his run.”

Travers winner uncertain for Classic

Leading Change, meanwhile, is at 18/1, a fair price considering that Cox has not indicated if he will even run. Next year, Churchill Downs Inc. and the New York Racing Association will launch the Thoroughbred Championship Series, a six-race event that offers a $5 million bonus pool. Following the Travers, the TCS will conclude with a championship race for 3-year olds, likely held before the Breeders Cup.

Such a race would be ideal for an inexperienced horse such as Leading Change, as Cox weighs his next steps. At Saturday’s press conference, Cox lauded the bay colt for his intelligence, noting that he has an unflappable persona in training. In that regard, Cox compared Leading Change to his sister Shedaresthedevil, a multiple stakes winner who captured the 2020 Kentucky Oaks.

Owned by Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, the Emir of Qatar, Wathnan is widely regarded as as one of the world’s most prominent racing stables. Clay recalls a conversation with Cox at the 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, when the trainer pointedly informed him that “this is the type of horse you want”. Wathnan purchased the yearling for $800,000.

For now, Cox is unsure that Leading Change can take on the likes of Forever Young and Sovereignty, two of the world’s top older horses. That’s not to say that Cox could change his views as Leading Change adds seasoning.

“He’s a Grade I winner and I’m going to enjoy this victory,” said Cox on Saturday evening. “But listen, at some point, there’s zero doubt that down the line, he has the potential to be one of the top horses in the country.”